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I do not make market predictions very often. However, this time I am going out on a limb because there are too many factors that make me believe that the stock market is going to move much higher over the next year. In fact, I am fairly confident that we are already in a new bull market. Here is why I think we are witnessing an historic buying opportunity:

  (1) The amount of cash in money market funds recently reached an all-time record of 51 percent of the total amount of money in mutual funds. Over 5 trillion dollars. Yes, you heard it right -- 5 trillion dollars is now sitting on the sidelines in money market funds. This money is earning 1.5 percent on average. If the market starts to move up, this money will start to move back into the market and could easily cause the stock market to go up 25 to 50 percent over the next year.

  (2) We recently witnessed a double bottom in the DOW (period when the DOW reaches a historic bottom twice but the second time down it does not go as low). Although I generally do not pay much attention to technical analysis, some of the old-timers that have been studying the stock market for over 50 years have lots of data to show that when you have a double bottom in the DOW, you always get a major stock market rally. It doesn't occur very often, but when it does it has accurately predicted U.S. stock market bottoms for over 100 years.

  (3) There has only been one time in history, the Great Depression, when the market went down more than three years in a row. The odds of the market going down this year are about 30 to 1. Betting on 30 to 1 odds in your favor is a pretty good bet.

  (5) The next presidential election is less than two years away. The best years of stock market performance usually occur when the president is trying to boost the economy so he has a chance of getting re-elected.

  (6) Earnings are actually better than expected. The number of companies beating earnings forecasts this quarter (April for most companies) is better than any time over the last three years.

In my mind, all these things add up to one thing: the stock market will move 25 to 50 percent higher over the next 12 months. The move has already started. All the stock market indices have moved up over the last two weeks and volume is picking up.

If you have been afraid to invest, start thinking about investing.

First, recognizing this historic opportunity, I have been busy, both investing for myself and creating a wealth of investment information for you. For anyone who has not purchased a copy of ROGUE INVESTOR, I am going to make it very easy to do so now.

For the next two weeks (expires May 14, 2003), I will offer ROGUE INVESTOR, three months of personal online support, and my recently completed stock screen (profiling 50 of the most undervalued stocks in the world) for the same price of $29.97. To my knowledge, ROGUE INVESTOR is one of easiest to understand and best selling investment products on the Internet. I continue to receive wonderful, unsolicited testimonials for this product (http://www.rogueinvestor.com/testimonials.html) and the information contained in ROGUE INVESTOR has allowed me to beat over 99 percent of all stock mutual funds for 11 years in a row, including both bull and bear markets. I also offer a full 90-day money back guarantee. Click on the link below to obtain your copy of ROGUE INVESTOR before the deadline expires on May 14, 2003.

Second, for everyone that has already purchased ROGUE INVESTOR or one of my companion products, I thank you. To show my appreciation, I am going to send you free of charge my latest stock screen that I just completed two weeks ago. This stock screen profiles companies that are actually selling for less than the yearly revenues earned by the company. These rock bottom stocks also have limited debt and high projected growth rates. Many of these stocks could triple or quadruple in one year if the economy improves at all. I am also going to go one step further. For my loyal customers, I am going to give you three additional months of personal email support for free. I do not want anyone to feel like they have no one to talk to as they make important investment decisions. In the next few days, I will send you an email telling you how to download your stock screen and what email address you should use to contact me.

Third, for those of you who are real estate investors, I have a present for you on the Rogue Investor website (http://www.rogueinvestor.com). I have created an entire glossary of real estate investment terms that you can use for free. It took me almost a week of hard work to create this glossary, but I think the effort was worth it. I hope it helps you understand real estate investing terminology. In the next month, I will be creating a similar stock investing glossary. I will let you know when it is done.

Again, as always, I urge you to start making your own investment decisions. No one understands your investment goals and tolerance for risk better than you do. Also, if you haven't noticed, you can't trust most professional money managers.

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Feature Article: Buy the Manager, Not the Fund
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In my opinion, the entire mutual fund industry has really done themselves and their clients a big disservice by focusing on what the mutual fund invests in and not the manager behind the fund. If you read the prospectus for a mutual fund or look at most mutual fund advertisements, they spend  all of their time talking about what stocks the fund owns, or what markets the fund invests in without spending hardly any time on what's really going to make the difference over the long haul: the fund manager. Anyone can pick an industry or an index and start buying companies. Very few people can consistently find the best companies in any given market and make money when times are good or bad.

When you are shopping for a mutual fund, look for information on the fund manager first. Try to answer the following questions:

  (1) How long has the fund manager been at the helm? If it's anything less than three years, watch out. You are probably dealing with an unproven rookie. A good track record for 5 to 10 years should be a minimum requirement, unless the fund manager has lots of other good experience and is consistently beating other fund managers in the same industry without taking a lot of risk.

  (2) How well has the fund manager done in both bull and bear markets?

  (3) What is the fund manager's investing style and does it fit your tolerance for risk? Look at the risk rating for the fund. Great managers minimize risk and maximize returns.

  (4) Is the fund manager a specialist in a particular industry and has he/she been able to consistently outperform other fund managers in the same industry?

Approach it like you are hiring this person for your private money manager and you will have a much better chance of picking a good fund manager.

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Stocks of the Month: Monaco Coach (MNC) and Taro Pharmaceuticals (TARO)
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Looking for great investments that will benefit from major demographic shifts is a time proven investment strategy. Add evolving psychological factors and you have an even better engine for growth. For example, look at the combination of millions of baby boomers retiring and the new found fears regarding air travel and overseas vacations. Some companies like airlines will suffer while other companies like recreational vehicle (RV) manufacturers will likely prosper. One of my favorite picks in the leisure travel business is Monaco Coach. Monaco Coach makes just about any type of RV, ranging from trailers for $15,000 to motor homes costing more than $1,000,000. Due to fears regarding consumer spending during the Iraqi war, many RV companies watched their stock prices fall by 50 percent over the last few months. Selling at a little over book value, and more than 50 percent less than the yearly revenues the company typically earns, Monaco Coach looks cheap. The current P/E ratio of less than 10 is also much lower than the company's estimated growth rate of 15 percent per year over the next five years. Limited debt and high stock ownership by insiders make the stock look even more attractive.

I have already profiled Taro before, but their earnings are so incredible that I could not resist talking about this company again. Taro management recently reported sales and earnings growth more than 40 percent higher than last year and the company continues to beat earnings expectations.

Taro sells generic drugs. However, they pick niches that have few competitors (creams, liquids, etc.). They are incorporated in Israel (although most of their business is in Europe, Canada and the U.S.), so their income tax rate is lower (16 percent per year). Their earnings are growing at about 30 to 40 percent per year, they have little debt, almost $5 per share in cash and the P/E ratio of Taro is equal to the long-term projected growth rate of the company.

As millions of Americans and Europeans approach old age, drug companies will benefit. In my opinion, generic drug companies may benefit most, because the cost of prescription drugs is escalating and generic drugs are often 50 percent less than drugs still under patent. Taro, still only a 1 billion dollar company, looks well positioned to grow rapidly over the next two decades. Also, while many other companies have been struggling to survive, Taro has been aggressively expanding their business. This is usually a sign of a company that is confident about the future. Combine all these factors and I think Taro may still be one of the single best investments in the current market.

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Real Estate Investing
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As I stated above, I have added a real estate investment glossary to the Rogue Investor website (http://www.rogueinvestor.com). The glossary includes many of the most widely used real estate investing terms and some tips on how to sell your home quickly without a realtor. I invite you to visit the site and research the real estate investing terms at your leisure.

If you have an investing question, email me at: roguereport@rogueinvestor.com.

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Disclaimer: There are no guarantees in investing. I make no assurances regarding the investment information presented in the Rogue Investing Report.

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